Seven billion

In less than a week, by the end of this month, the United Nations announced that the official population of the world will reach a staggering seven billion human beings.

2,000 years ago, the world's population was around 300 million and we didn't reach a billion people until 1800. The second billion was notched up in 1927. The three billion mark was reached by my second birthday in 1959; it then rose to four billion in 1974, and accelerated to five billion in 1987, six billion in 1999 and seven billion in 2011.

By the time you are 40 years old, my dear Yael, in 2050 it is estimated that the world population will be aat least 9.3 billion people and more than 10 billion by 2100. 

While extended life expectancy due to some health improvements in the poorer parts of the world, is a major contributor to this meteoric rise in population, this clearly presents a major challenge for humankind.  There is limit to the amount of land available for growing food crops and there is a finite volume of water on the planet.  

It is very much my prediction that the continued population explosion will be among the biggest problems for the people of this world.

Grandpa Jonathan

Prague, Czech Republic

Only 365 days to go

Today, in exactly one year's tinme, the Olympic Games will open in London.  And I am delighted to report that your grandfather has a ticket to attend the opening ceremony.  I can't wait.  It seems like yesterday when the President of the International Olympic Committee announced at a special event in Singapore that London had won the bid to host the 2012 games.  I have long been enthralled by the Olympic Games, and adore watching this once-in-four-years event.  It's wonderful that they will be happening in my home town.  After all the miserable news, it is a delight to see the media focusing on something so positive.

Nuclear emergency

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Israel worries as Egypt erupts

Protests in Tunisia which toppled its President, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who had been in power for 23 years has proven contageous across North Africa.  With violent demonstrations now raging in Egypt, it looks as though it can only be a matter of days before its president of 29 years, Hosni Mubarak is also forced out of office.  Scenes on the streets of Cairo and elsewhere in this nation of 82 million Arabs are dramatic, with increasing signs that the authorities will be unable to contain this popular uprising.  The key question right now is what the spectre of Mubarak's fall will mean for Israel?

Egypt under Mubarak has been the major force for stability in the region since the signing of the Israel-Egypt peace agreement more than three decades ago in the wake of the Yom Kippur War.  Mubarak, who served as Egypt's air force commander in that war, made a point of honouring the deal and nurturing civil relations with Israel's leadership even though many of his countrymen, seculars as well as Islamists, object to relations with the Jewish state.

The peace treaty with Egypt provided legitimacy for Jordan to make peace with Israel as well and permitted other Arab countries to establish formal or informal contacts with it. Mubarak was personally active in trying to promote peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and Israelis saw him as an honest broker.  Peace with Egypt, which has the largest army in the Arab world, permitted Israel to substantially reduce the burden on its own armed forces, from the budget to the number of years that reservists are required to serve.

Egyptian security forces cooperated with Israel in reducing the number of weapons smuggled from their territory into the Gaza Strip and the number of armed militants attempting to cross over the border.  If Egypt turns once again to be a confrontational state, then Israel will have to make a major shift in its military planning and deployment to be able meet this new threat.  Even without a direct confrontation with Israel, the rise of a radical regime in Egypt, or one unfriendly to Israel, is likely to encourage greater radicalisation in other countries in the region. Jordan, a peaceful and strategically important country on Israel's eastern border, could become a channel for anti-Israel militants from the east - Iraq or Iran - seeking to get at Israel.

It's a worrying time for Israel.  But despite the ominous scenarios taking shape in the minds of strategists, it is by no means certain that events will play out that way. The man appointed by Mubarak today as his deputy and presumed successor, intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, is well known and respected in Israel, where he has frequently visited. It is presumed that his policies towards Israel would be similar to Mubarak's.

I woke up early this morning to watch the latest news from Egypt, and I am very concerned.  We can now but wait and see how these worrying events unfold.  Perhaps Egypt is on the brink of becoming a democracy and that its new government will strive to improve relations still further with Israel.  Or maybe Islamic fundamentalism will take over, which would clearly be a real blow to peace and security in the region.

I remember as it were yesterday when President Anwar Sadat, who was the first Arab leader to sign a peace treaty with Israel, was gunned down at a military ceremony by extremists among his own troops in 1981.  Fortunately, he was succeeded by his deputy, Hosni Mubarak, who has been a friend of Israel.  But what happens now?

Apparently, there a joke been doing the rounds in Egypt for some years.  Mubarak's advisors have been telling him that the people of Egypt are saying "goodbye", and the President retorted, "where are they going".  In spite of his Western outlook and support for peace with Israel, Mubarak made the same mistake of so many other unelected leaders, which is to assume that he will remain in office in perpetuity.  Sadly, he hasn't allowed a true civil society to develop in Egypt and he's now paying the price for this error.



Grandpa Jonathan
Boston, USA

Don't follow rules blindly

I watched the recently-released film, The Social Network, on board my flight from London to the U.S. today.  While I didn't rate it as a great movie, it tells the fascinating story of the creation of Facebook, which is really taking the world by storm.  It's quite apt that I was heading to Boston, where the now-world's largest social networking website was launched in 2004.  By the time you read this, my dear Yael, you may wonder why I am so amazed by what is seen as an extraordinary phonomena right now.

Facebook was founded by the then 20 year-old Mark Zuckerberg with his university friendss and fellow computer science students.   The website's membership was initially limited by the founders to Harvard students, but was quickly expanded to other colleges in the Boston area.   It rapidly added support for students at various other universities before opening to high school students, and, subsequently to anyone aged 13 and over. At the time of writing, there are 600,000 Facebook members, that's almost 10 percent of the world's population.  Facebook is now worth 6 billion US dollars and Zuckerberg is the youngest billionair on the planet.  Incredible for a service that didn't exist just six years ago.

The best part of this astounding story is that Zuckerberg initially hacked into the protected areas of Harvard's computer network to establish the precursor to Facebook  Called Facemash, the service was  quickly shut down by the university administration. and the 20 year-old undergraduate was charged with breach of security, copyright violation, and invasion of privacy, and faced expulsion. Ultimately, however, the charges were dropped.

The moral of this tale is that extraordinary innovations aren't necessarily driven by conventional behaviour.  While they may be there for good reasons, rules often need to be broken for revolutionary ideas to take hold.  My dear Yael, as you go through life, I would encourage you not follow rules blindly.


Grandpa Jonathan
Boston, USA

Amsterdam to London

After two successful days of meetings in Rotterdam, I took the fast train from Rotterdam to Amsterdam's Schipol airport where I flew to London for Friday night dinner at your great aunt Beverley's.  I spent a lovely evening there together with my mother and two of Bev's children, Tom and Annie.

It'll be a flying visit, as I leave tomorrow for the United States.


Grandpa Jonathan
London, UK

Bath time

I left Israel as the sun started to appear, while reflecting on the three wonderful days spent with you.  In spite of the sadness of Nahum's death and concern about Anne's health, seeing you, my darling Yael, was pure joy.  You are already so alert and interested in everything around you.  Apart from your noisy protests each time you are placed in the car baby seat, you are a very easy going and adorable baby.  You bring joy to us all.

I'm also so impressed by the way in which your parents are bringing you up.  I am sure that their relaxed and loving approach is the key to why you are so content.  As I went to sleep on my early flight from Tel Aviv to Prague this morning, I had this cute image in my mind of you taking a bath last night, when I took photos for which you will certainly not be thanking me in years to come.

Happily, my connnecting flight from Prague to Amsterdam was on time, and I then took a fast train to Rotterdam to arrive on schedule for my client meeting.

We may live in differant countries, but as I prepare for bed this evening, I promise myself that I will make every effort to see you often.  So.....see you soon!

Granpda Jonathan

Rotterdam, Netherlands

May Nahum rest in peace

While your mother stayed at home with you, your father and aunt came with me to Nahum's stone setting this morning.  It was a gloriously sunny day and his grave is situated on a beautiful Jerusalem hillside where he will rest in peace after such a long and terrible illness.

His brother David, who settled here some years before Nahum, spoke emotionally about how his father had asked him to look after his younger brother when he came to live in Israel.  Choking back the tears, David movingly said that now that he can no longer fulfil that duty, he wanted to care for the rest of the family, for Susan and the four sons Nahum had left behind.

Nahum was my brother in law and friend.  It is so difficult to come to terms with the fact that I will never see him again.  But I have very fond memories of a man who everyone liked.  He will be sorely missed.


Grandpa Jonathan
Jerusalem, Israel

Our trip to see great grandma Anne

I was sad to see the effect that the stroke has had on your great grandmother, Anne, who we visited today at her special care home in Ranana.  I drove your parents, your aunt Rachel and you to visit her today.  She was asleep when we first arrived, so we went for lunch at the harbour at Hertzliah Pertuach.  This was your first view of the sea.  We returned to find great grandma Anne sitting in a wheelchair in a room with many other elderly people in various states of incapacity.

While it was gratifiying to find that she knew who we were, it is clear that the series of strokes that she has had in recent weeks has left her in a poor state.  She has only limited sight and movement, and is quite confused.  But she was very happy to see us all.

I first met Anne Kennard 31 years ago, when she was the formidable headmistress of Kerem House kindergarten in London's Hampstead Garden suburb.  She was a large, stern woman with a sharp tongue who many people actually feared, particularly parents whose children went to her school.  Both your father and Rachel went there, and I can tell you that I was quite scared of her.  She is now a completely differant person.

I'm so sorry to see her in such a helpless state.  I just hope that she is not suffering.  Clearly, her condition will now only marginally improve, if at all, but I hope that she can love her final days with dignity and derive happiness from her large and loving family.  Your presence brought a sparkle to her eyes.

After returning to Jerusalem, we went to a memorial service for Nahum at his schul in Ramot.  Susan introduced the proceedings, and your uncle Amichai, the eldest of Nahum's four sons gave a lovely tribute in his memory, and the rabbi gave a shiur.  It's so hard to believe that he has gone.


Granpda Jonathan
Jerusalem, Israel

Yael, you have grown so much

I arrived in Israel at the crack of dawn for a three day visit.  It's been more than three months since I last saw you, and I can't beleive the change. When we were together in London, you still weighed only around three kilos, and you are now an enormous seven kilos.

You've already taken over the apartment, with your equipment and toys in evidence everywhere.  And as you don't like being alone, you are taekn everyewhere, even into the bathroom where you are held in your father's arms while he shaves, with you watching in fascination.

You aunt Rachel is also in Israel for a week's recuperation after her exams.  I spent much of the day with her, wandering around Jerusalem, having lunch and doing some shopping for dinner which I prepared at your place.  I found a lovely piece of fresh tuna in the Machanah Yehudah.  It was the first time your mother had eaten fresh tuna, which I lighly sauteed in virgin olive oil.  We washed down the meal with a couple of bottles of 2008 shiraz from the Adir Winery at Kerem Ben Zimra.

Your parents wouldn't permit me to give you any of the wine, but I assure you that we will have plenty of opportunity to share a bottle or two together when you get older.


Grandpa Jonathan
Jerusalem, Israel

A day of ethical questions

What a news day in Britian!  Last night, the shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alan Johnson, and this morning the Prime Minister's communications director, Andy Coulson, tendered their resignnations for unrelated reasons.  And former PM, Tony Blair, spent much of the day being publicly questioned by members of the inquiry panel established to ascertain the legitimacy of Britain's role in the war to topple Iraq's dicator, Sadam Hussein, in 2003.

Although unconnected, there is a common thread running through these three events.  Each raises interesting ethical questions, although they may be quite obscure to people from countries where corruption in public service is rife an endemic.

Alan Johnson surprised the nation when he announced his resignation for 'personal reasons' after just three months in the post.  At first, most thought this was a euphemism for something sinister.  But it turned out that he wife had been having an affair with one of his bodyguards from when he was the Home Secretary.  You could be forgiven for wondering why he would feel the need to quit his job because of his wife's wrongdoings.  But in British public service, there is a general notion that if a scandal threatens to detract from the job a person is doing, then the right thing to do is to step down.  It's a far cry from Italian public service where the PM is embroiled in an underage sex controversy and refuses to budge.

Andy Coulson is the former editor of a popular Sunday newpaper called the News of the World.  During his tenure, his Royal correspondent was found guilty of hacking into the phones of famous people.  He went to jail.  In spite of claiming he knew nothing about the criminal acts of one of his journalists and that this was a rogue act that the newspaper condemned, he felt the need to resign in the interests of protecting the reputation of his newspaper.  Once again, the notion of resigning for something you didn't do may seem quite strange. But this is the British way.  He was subsequently employed by the Prmie Minister to manage the government's external communications. 

Unfortunately for Coulson, stories about phone hacking being endemic at his former newspaper and rumours that he knew about it, continued to abound.  Although he protested his innocence, weeks of media gossip made him feel that it was time for him to go.  He beleived that when the person responsible for managing the reputation of the government is having his own reputation questioned that this is too much of a distraction and compromises his job.

As for Tony Blair, who has been out of office for more than three years, he is still being gruelled by the so-called Chilcott enquiry, which is investigating the rights and wrongs of government decisions taken eight years previously.  Blair continues to maintain that he believed that it was right to join forces with the United States and invade Iraq with the aim of unseating the country's dictator who was a threat to world stability.  The debate is complex, and with hindsight, the war now looks questionable.  But at the time, Sadam Hussein did appear to be a threat to the world.  He had previously invade Kuwait which was subsequently liberated by American and British forces, during which conflict he unleashed missiles on Israel.  And he had committed terrrible attrocities on ethnic minorities in his country.

It's right for politicians to be questioned.  This is part and parcel of the democratic process.  We have a right to know why certain decisions of real importance are made.  And our leaders should be held to account.  But I fear this enquiry is unearthing nothing new.  I certainly don't beleive that Blair is guilty of anything other than following his own convictions.  Now that's rare for most politicians.



Grandpa Jonathan
Prague, Czech Republic

Haircut in London

I have just returned from a day trip to London, primarily to visit my barber.

Now you may think it rather self indulgent to go to another country just to have my hair cut.  But you need to know that I have been going to the same barber, Anthony, for over 30 years.  He has become a good friend and it would feel like a betrayal to allow anyone else's scissors near to my scalp. 

My hair and beard were looking so wild that I really couldn't come and visit you in Israel next week in such a shoddy state.  I can now look in the mirror and see a respectable gentleman.  Looks can be deceptive.


Grandpa Jonathan
Prague, Czech Republic

100 days to go

There's now exactly 100 days until the wedding of Prince William to Kate.  And one of the biggest questions being asked is whether Kate's wedding dress will be successfully kept under wraps.  Or will the design be leaked to the media?

As trivial as this may seem, it's not everyday that Britain has a Royal wedding, and particularly involving someone in direct line to the thrown.  It also provides a welcome distraction from all the gloomy economic news.

I'm a royalist and am greatly looking forward to the festivities in April.  So let the countdown to the great day begin.


Grandpa Jonathan
Prague, Czech Republic

Israel's diplomatic farce

Today's news of a strike at Israel's foreign ministry forcing the cancellation of a visit from Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev's is absolutely farcical.  Apparently, workers at the ministry had threatened to “ruin” the visit if it went ahead.  They are demanding higher pay.

This is an embarrassment for Israel.  But at least it’s quite funny.  All-too-often Israel is in the news because of some awful security-related issue.  I suppose I am happier to see Israel portrayed as a diplomatic laughing stock as opposed to a bully.

Israel attracts far too much negative media coverage, much of it quite unfairly.  But the nation’s politics is pretty ugly, and this labour-relations debacle with key civil servants is something else of which Israel cannot be proud.  As it turns out, this is unlikely to have any lasting consequences. 

While I absolutely believe that everyone should have the right to take industrial action, it does seem to me that these civil servants should be considering other ways to pressurise the government into paying them more.

On a happier note, I today booked my flights to Israel for next week.  I will come for just three days, but can’t wait to see you, my dear Yael.  It’s been too long and I am going to do my best to visit more often.

Grandpa Jonathan
Prague, Czech Republic

Silvio and Ruby

He may be a crooked sleaze bag, but Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi is again entertaining us with his sexual shenanigans.  Today's news is full of the 74 year-old premier's deinial of any wrongdoing with a 17-year-old lapdancer called Ruby.

"I love life, I love women", Berlusconi is reported as saying, as he now faces allegations of having sex with a minor.  Ruby was only 15 when she first met Silvio who apparantly paid her 7,000 euros.  Although both deny there being any physical relationship.

For a country that's had a record 21 prime ministers since 1945, Berlusconi's politial staying power is remarkable staying power, being the only premier to hold the position in excess of four years.  Actually, he's now in his second term as PM, having held the position for a cumulative total of more than six years.  But his days must now be surely numbered.  It must only be a matter of time before business and corruption scandals, combined with his obvious interest in teenage girls, will catch up with him.

I admire Italy for many wonderful reasons.  It has some of the most wonderful food and wine in the world.  It's people are relaxed, friencly and warm.  It has some of the most maginificent countryside, as well as some of the most impressive towns and citiies including Rome, which is one of my most favourite of cities in the world.  But Italy's politics has always been an embarrassment.



Grandpa Jonathan
Prague, Czech Republic

Revolution in Tunisia...where next?

After a month of steadily escalating riots across Tunisia, President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali lost his grip on power Friday. The country's prime minister announced that he was taking over to organize early elections and usher in a new government as 74 year-old Ben Ali, who'd been in power for 24 years, fled the North African nation.

This is a people's revolution fuelled by a desire by Tunisian's to rid themselves of the shackles of authoritarianism and embrace democracy.  It's potential consequences for the whole region are enormous.  Just as strikes by disgruntled workers in the Polish dockyard in Gdansk at the end of the 1980s spread to unrest in other communist countries led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, these dramatic events in Tunisia could mark the beginning of profound change throughout the Arab world.

Could this destabilise the region, opening the door to fundamentalist Islamic forces to take a strong foothold?  Or will this revolution bring democracy to totalitarian Arab nations, including Israel's largest neighbour, Egypt?


Grandpa Jonathan
Prague, Czech Republic

Ageism

A landmark legal decision in Britain today is likely to have significant societal consequences.  The former presenter of BBC TV's Countryfile programme, Miriam O’Reilly won her employment case against the Corporation after she claimed she was discriminated against on the grounds of ageism.

O’Reilly, 53, was dropped from the show in 2009 when it moved to its current Sunday evening slot.
She was replaced by a younger presenter, while programme host John Craven, 68, was kept on.  Interestingly for me, John Craven is a TV personality from my youth.  He was the presenter of the very first news programme specifically made for children, called John Craven's Newsround.

Discrimination of all kinds is wrong.  But at the time of writing this, society is only just beginning to consider ageism as a form of discrimination.  This particular presenter is fully capable of doing her job and clearly should not have been sacked simply because some BBC executives wanted to freshen up the look of one of their TV programmes.



Grandpa Jonathan
Prague, Czech Republic

Gun ownership is abhorrent

Today's shooting of Arizona congresswoman, Gabrielle Gifford, at a political rally outside a grocery store in Tucson is shocking.  Although she took a bullet in the head, the 40 year-old democrat looks likely to make a miraculous recovery.  Time will tell how badly injured she has been.  But six people attending the rally were trajically killed, including a 9 year-old girl who was actually born on the very day of the infamous 9-11 attacks.  And 17 others were injured by a single gunman who reportedly shot indiscriminately and with no clear motive.

Gun violence in the United States is an intensely debated political issue in the Unted States, which is hardly surprising given that an average of 30,000 are fatally shot each year.   Shootings are hardly is hardly new in the United States, with the assasinations of President Abraham Lincoln in 1865, and of Presidents James Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy. High profile gun violence incidents, such as the assassinations of  Rober Kennedy, Martin Luther King  and, more recently, the Columbine High School massacrem the Beltway sniper attaacks  and the Virginia Tech massacre have further fueled debate over gun policy.

While gun crime is not unique to America, the world's 'superpower' has more gun victims than any other nations.  There's an average of 30,000 gun deaths in the US each year.  And yet there is a strong lobby to protect people's right, which is ridiculously enshrined in the constitution, to own a gun.  How crazy is that?

I find the right for ordinary civilians to carry weapons to be absolutely abhorent.  Every effort must be made to reduce the number of weapons available.  Unfortunately, there are far too many guns in evidence in Israel.  But this is because of the tense security situation.  I sincerely hope that by the time you get to read my blog, my darling Yael, that there will be no need for such horrible weapons to be carried anymore in Israel. 

As for the US, let's hope that Congresswoman Gifford fully recovers from here injuries and that the shock of this awful shooting will act as a wake up call for America.   Guns should be eliminated from society.

Grandpa Jonathan

Prague, Czech Republic

New year heralds historic changes

Today is 1.1.11, and this first day of 2011 heralds two historic changes.  Estonia becomes the 17th country to introduce the Euro, and Brazil's first woman president takes office.

With the euro woes of Greece and Ireland prompting some to suggest that the currency is on the rocks, it is encouraging to see a new member of the Eurozone today.  It is quite remarkable to think that Estonia was a part of the Soviet Union until just 20 years ago.  Who would have ever imagined back then that this small Baltic state with a population of little over a million, would ever have acceded to the European Union, yet alone the Euro.

While we are becoming somewhat more accustomed to female leaders, they are still relatively rare.  For a country of the size of Brasil, it is very encouraging to see Dilma Rousseff sworn in today as Brazil's first woman president, succeeding the incredibly popular President Lula. 

By the time you read this, I really do hope that the Euro will be a successful currency embraced by all of Europe, incoluding Britain, and that there will be nothing remarkable about any woman being appointed to any job in the world.


Grandpa Jonathan
Prague, Czech Republic