Protests in Tunisia which toppled its President, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who had been in power for 23 years has proven contageous across North Africa. With violent demonstrations now raging in Egypt, it looks as though it can only be a matter of days before its president of 29 years, Hosni Mubarak is also forced out of office. Scenes on the streets of Cairo and elsewhere in this nation of 82 million Arabs are dramatic, with increasing signs that the authorities will be unable to contain this popular uprising. The key question right now is what the spectre of Mubarak's fall will mean for Israel?
Egypt under Mubarak has been the major force for stability in the region since the signing of the Israel-Egypt peace agreement more than three decades ago in the wake of the Yom Kippur War. Mubarak, who served as Egypt's air force commander in that war, made a point of honouring the deal and nurturing civil relations with Israel's leadership even though many of his countrymen, seculars as well as Islamists, object to relations with the Jewish state.
The peace treaty with Egypt provided legitimacy for Jordan to make peace with Israel as well and permitted other Arab countries to establish formal or informal contacts with it. Mubarak was personally active in trying to promote peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and Israelis saw him as an honest broker. Peace with Egypt, which has the largest army in the Arab world, permitted Israel to substantially reduce the burden on its own armed forces, from the budget to the number of years that reservists are required to serve.
Egyptian security forces cooperated with Israel in reducing the number of weapons smuggled from their territory into the Gaza Strip and the number of armed militants attempting to cross over the border. If Egypt turns once again to be a confrontational state, then Israel will have to make a major shift in its military planning and deployment to be able meet this new threat. Even without a direct confrontation with Israel, the rise of a radical regime in Egypt, or one unfriendly to Israel, is likely to encourage greater radicalisation in other countries in the region. Jordan, a peaceful and strategically important country on Israel's eastern border, could become a channel for anti-Israel militants from the east - Iraq or Iran - seeking to get at Israel.
It's a worrying time for Israel. But despite the ominous scenarios taking shape in the minds of strategists, it is by no means certain that events will play out that way. The man appointed by Mubarak today as his deputy and presumed successor, intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, is well known and respected in Israel, where he has frequently visited. It is presumed that his policies towards Israel would be similar to Mubarak's.
I woke up early this morning to watch the latest news from Egypt, and I am very concerned. We can now but wait and see how these worrying events unfold. Perhaps Egypt is on the brink of becoming a democracy and that its new government will strive to improve relations still further with Israel. Or maybe Islamic fundamentalism will take over, which would clearly be a real blow to peace and security in the region.
I remember as it were yesterday when President Anwar Sadat, who was the first Arab leader to sign a peace treaty with Israel, was gunned down at a military ceremony by extremists among his own troops in 1981. Fortunately, he was succeeded by his deputy, Hosni Mubarak, who has been a friend of Israel. But what happens now?
Apparently, there a joke been doing the rounds in Egypt for some years. Mubarak's advisors have been telling him that the people of Egypt are saying "goodbye", and the President retorted, "where are they going". In spite of his Western outlook and support for peace with Israel, Mubarak made the same mistake of so many other unelected leaders, which is to assume that he will remain in office in perpetuity. Sadly, he hasn't allowed a true civil society to develop in Egypt and he's now paying the price for this error.
Grandpa Jonathan
Boston, USA
